59% of Bitcoin holders are profitable as the coin trades above the current Realized Price, which is the cost basis of the average BTC holder,IntoTheblock data on January 19, shows.
Parallel on-chain streams show that the realized price of Bitcoin is around $19,700. Comparing this number with the spot BTC price presently at over $20,700, it means 59% of coin holders are sitting on profits, a net positive for the ecosystem.
This development is a shot in the arm for HODLers, considering the sharp contraction of prices over the past few months. Then BTC plunged from around $69,000 in November 2021 to slightly over $15,000 in 2022.
On-chain data are crunched in real-time, and analysts interpret them to gauge the state of the market. Their interpretation, in turn, could massively influence sentiment and determine how retail traders act based on price action.
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As BTC prices react from $21,600 posted earlier this week, on-chain statistics show more than half of BTC holders are in green. Only 38% of market participants are out of the money.
Most Bitcoin Holders Have Been In The Red
Even as BTC appears to recover, there must be a comprehensive breakout to solidify and revive demand. Based on the recent Bitcoin price action, most holders appear to be in the green after an extended period of losses.
Trackers show that holders have been in losing territory since mid-August 2022. The situation only worsened in subsequent months when fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) swept across the crypto and BTC markets, forcing the coin even lower. This draw-down was because of the unexpected collapse of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Alameda Research, a trading firm closely associated with the Sam Bankman-Fried exchange.
By early November, BTC had dropped by over 65% from 2021 peaks, highlighting the level of apprehension across the board, pushing the Realized Price even lower.
Realized Versus Market Price
Realized Price is a metric that measures the price of all BTC currently in supply at the rate they were bought. The value obtained is then divided by the BTC in the circulating supply.
The result gives an “average cost basis” which is then used to describe the Realized Price. It is different from the spot market price because the latter indicates Bitcoin’s current price based on real-time supply and demand. Like any other asset, BTC prices are massively determined by market forces, with the “hype” element, describing sentiment, another factor to consider.
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That more than half of Bitcoin holders are profitable at spot rates is important. Realized Price helps judge the overall economic state of the Bitcoin market. How this metric fluctuates versus the market price tells whether BTC holders are buoyant or distressed. In technical analysis, the Realized Price can be used to mark resistance or support levels.
Technically, whenever the Realized Price exceeds the Market Price, it indicates some BTC holders are in profit. If it drops below Market Price, then on aggregate, a section of market participants is in red. Profitability depends on the price level they bought.
Featured image from Flickr, Charts from TradingView.com